The tragic death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the last surviving son of Libya's former dictator Muammar Gaddafi, has sent shockwaves through the country's fragile political landscape. This event not only removes a key figure from the scene but also eliminates a potential alternative to the current power struggle between the UN-backed government in Tripoli and the Libyan National Army in the east.
Saif al-Islam, despite his controversial past, held a unique position in Libyan politics. He was once seen as a reformist, Western-friendly figure, but his image took a dark turn during the 2011 revolution when he joined his father's brutal crackdown on protesters. His infamous speech, threatening "rivers of blood," marked a turning point, transforming him from a potential reformer to a symbol of the hated regime.
Even after his capture by rebels in 2011 and subsequent six-year captivity, Saif al-Islam maintained a certain influence. His captors eventually became his protectors, and he even led a relatively normal life, getting married and having children. His release in 2017 and subsequent low profile led many to believe he was dead, but he reemerged in 2021, hinting at a political comeback.
His attempt to run for president in 2021 caused a major stir, contributing to the collapse of the entire electoral process. While disqualified due to a war crimes conviction, his candidacy divided the nation and derailed the vote. Despite this, he retained support from those nostalgic for the perceived stability of the Gaddafi era.
Muammar Gaddafi, who came to power in 1969 amidst a wave of Arab world coups, presided over a dictatorial regime that experienced economic growth fueled by Libya's oil reserves. However, the regime was also notorious for mass human rights abuses, including the execution of political opponents.
Saif al-Islam's popularity among Gaddafi-era nostalgists and his promise of reform made him a symbolic figure. His real power lay not in military might but in the narrative he controlled, representing a certain ideology locally known as the Greens, after his father's "Green Book."
The impact of his death is most keenly felt in eastern Libya, where there is an overlap between the supporters of military commander Khalifa Haftar, who controls the region, and Gaddafi's base. Despite this overlap, Saif al-Islam and Haftar deeply distrusted each other due to Haftar's defection from the Gaddafi regime and his subsequent rebellion against Muammar Gaddafi.
Tensions between the two escalated in 2021 when Haftar-aligned militias blocked a court hearing on Saif al-Islam's election appeal, only withdrawing after demonstrations by his supporters. Haftar feared Saif's popularity and the possibility of him replicating his father's system.
"The immediate beneficiary [of the killing] is Haftar," said El Gomati. "Saif represents an alternative to the authoritarian model which Haftar built."
While his symbolic importance cannot be understated, analysts predict that the immediate fallout from Saif al-Islam's assassination will be limited. The supporters of the Gaddafi regime have fragmented since 2011, with many former loyalists now working within the competing eastern and western power structures.
"This event stirs the waters, but it won't bring a storm to Libya," Gazzini said. While Saif al-Islam's death is significant, it is unlikely to drastically change Libya's political deadlock.
"His death eliminates Libya's last viable spoiler to the current power duopoly," El Gomati added. "His assassination closes the door on any potential exit from this divided power system."
What are your thoughts on this complex situation? Do you think this event will have a lasting impact on Libya's future? Feel free to share your insights and opinions in the comments below!
