Reviving Cotton: A Crucial Journey for Pakistan's Agriculture
The decline in cotton production in Pakistan over the last decade has reached alarming levels. In fiscal year 2015, the country produced 13.9 million bales of cotton, but by fiscal year 2025, that number plummeted to just 7.08 million bales. This drastic reduction is mirrored by a significant decrease in the area devoted to cotton cultivation, which shrank from 7.31 million acres to 5.04 million acres, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey. As a result, the State Bank reported that Pakistan, once a net exporter of cotton, now finds itself in the position of importing cotton and cotton yarn worth $3.13 billion in fiscal year 2025.
Recently, the Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan convened an inter-ministerial meeting with participation from the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, focusing on strategies to revitalize the cotton industry. The proposed revival plan hinges on one main idea: enhancing seed varieties through dedicated research and development, ensuring high-quality seed production, and effectively delivering these improved seeds to farmers. This approach is intended to restore cotton production to its former glory.
However, it is essential to acknowledge that the circumstances surrounding cotton farming have evolved significantly over the past decade. The reasons behind the decline are multifaceted and cannot be attributed solely to issues related to seed quality.
Policymakers must understand that in Pakistan, where there has been no enforcement of crop zoning, farmers increasingly make decisions about what to plant based on potential financial returns. As landholdings become smaller and economic pressures mount, profitability has become the primary consideration for many farmers. When a crop promises higher returns, farmers are quick to switch their focus, often ignoring the increased costs, additional labor demands, or operational challenges that may arise.
A pertinent example of this trend is the rapid increase in potato farming. While potatoes require significant investment and careful management, their profitability can lead to swift adoption among farmers. Similarly, two years ago, sesame cultivation surged when local prices reached Rs17,000 per 40kg, but the area dedicated to sesame quickly fell when prices dropped to Rs10,000. This underscores the point that any agricultural policy that fails to account for its effects on farmers’ income is destined to fail.
In many traditional cotton-growing regions, farmers who once adhered to a cotton-wheat cropping pattern are now exploring a broader range of options. In well-irrigated areas, crops such as sugarcane, rice, and maize have increasingly replaced cotton due to their higher returns and lower production risks. In contrast, cotton farming now faces significant production risks, including severe pest and disease threats that have worsened in recent years. These increased risks are partly due to the growing humidity brought about by high delta crops like sugarcane and rice, coupled with erratic rainfall patterns influenced by climate change, which adversely affect cotton during critical growth stages such as flowering and boll formation.
Interestingly, the government extension services, which previously advised against sowing cotton before May 20, are now suggesting sowing in February and March. This shift aims to help farmers maximize their harvests before adverse weather conditions set in during July and beyond. However, this early planting recommendation clashes with the cotton-wheat rotation cycle, as wheat fields in Punjab are typically not cleared until mid-April at the earliest. Consequently, farmers are often left with little choice but to exclude cotton from their cropping patterns altogether. As a result, cotton cultivation is now largely confined to regions like the Bahawalpur division in Punjab, where farmers face limited options for Kharif crops due to either water shortages or unsuitable soils and climatic conditions for rice, maize, or sugarcane.
Furthermore, many farmers in the cotton belt have intensified their cropping schedules, opting to grow three crops annually — such as wheat, sesame, and maize or wheat, sesame, and rice (specifically the 1509 variety) — thanks to the availability of short-duration crop varieties.
To bring about a revival in cotton production, it is crucial to enhance the economic viability of growing cotton at the farm level. One potential solution is to increase cotton prices, potentially through the establishment of support prices. Yet, in a deregulated market where prices are influenced by international trends, this solution may be impractical. Additionally, the rising popularity of synthetic and plant-based fibers such as viscose, tencel, and modal could further suppress cotton prices moving forward. Another possibility might involve reducing production costs through crop-specific subsidies, but such measures could face resistance from international financial institutions.
This leaves one sustainable path forward: improving yields. Achieving this goal will necessitate the development of high-yielding cotton varieties that are well-suited to Pakistan's diverse agro-climatic zones, resilient to the impacts of climate change, and compatible with the mixed-cropping systems prevalent in historically productive regions like Vehari, Khanewal, Lodhran, and Multan.
Unfortunately, such high-yielding varieties are currently not available, and developing them domestically could take many years. An alternative would be to import established varieties from reputable multinational companies after successfully completing mandatory two-year field trials, which could expedite the process of enhancing yields.
Even with a hypothetical 50 percent increase in yields — the current average being 717 kg of lint per approximately 2.5 acres — cotton would still struggle to compete financially with sugarcane, rice, and maize. The high costs associated with cotton production, driven by the necessity of applying pesticides 10 to 12 times to manage sucking pests, complicate efforts to draw farmers back into cotton cultivation.
Thus, rather than enforcing contentious and challenging crop zoning policies, a more viable strategy would be to focus on non-traditional cotton-growing regions in Balochistan and Punjab, including Lasbela, Mianwali, Layyah, and Bhakkar. These areas predominantly face semi-irrigation or water scarcity issues and naturally experience lower pest pressures. Notably, India has successfully expanded cotton production in its rain-fed regions by introducing Bt cotton hybrids that thrive under conditions of limited water.
In conclusion, Pakistan requires an innovative, medium-term strategy for reviving its cotton sector that takes into account the interests of all stakeholders, particularly the farmers. Without such a balanced approach, influential groups may continue to advocate for a revival agenda that primarily serves their own interests, neglecting the practical realities and broader needs of both the cotton industry and the country as a whole.
Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer, while Dr. Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, December 15th, 2025.
